Hydropower earnings case firms as exports hit Rs 5.92 bn

For anyone trading hydropower stocks, the earnings case just got stronger. Nepal's monthly electricity export revenue climbed to Rs 5.925 billion in Ashoj, and the 40 MW Bangladesh sales route that August floods had knocked offline is running again.

Why the numbers matter

The Nepal Electricity Authority sold 633.986 million units to India between mid-September and mid-October, with nearly two-thirds of the value booked under bilateral power sale agreements with Haryana and Bihar and the remainder sold at competitive rates on the Indian Energy Exchange's day-ahead and real-time markets. Revenue rose by Rs 962 million from the same month a year ago and by Rs 832.5 million from the previous month, even though some export-approved plants had suspended generation after flood damage.

Bangladesh flows restored

Exports of 40 MW to Bangladesh through India's transmission network resumed on October 23. The flow had been cut after the August 26 ice-rock avalanche flood on the Bhotekoshi River damaged the Trishuli and Chilime plants cleared for that route, and it also partly disrupted sales to Haryana. Under a revised arrangement, India's Central Electricity Authority approved generation from the Solu, Kabeli-1 and Lower Modi plants for supply to Bangladesh and Haryana in place of the damaged Trishuli, Devighat and Chilime stations.

The trade runs under a five-year seasonal agreement signed with the Bangladesh Power Development Board in October 2024, delivering 40 MW daily from June 15 to November 15. Separately, the Indian authority cleared an additional 31 MW for export, lifting total approved capacity to about 1,179 MW.

Positioning in the tape

In the latest session before the announcement, Chilime Hydropower (CHCL) traded in a balanced two-way pattern, closing at Rs 336.7 with the price steady against the session average and not far above the stock's 52-week low of Rs 320.4. The counter had drifted lower over the prior month, suggesting the tape had not yet begun pricing the recovery story, even as the hydropower sector index ticked up on the day.

What to watch

The November 15 close of the Bangladesh export window is the next test, followed by the Kartik monthly export figure, which will show whether restored flows and the fresh capacity approvals convert into another record month.